Britain's army chief has told troops that "our nation is going to need you," a Scottish civil servant has confirmed work on a new government "War Book," and the NHS has just rehearsed treating large numbers of wounded soldiers. Put together, the headlines this week can sound alarming. So is the UK actually preparing for war?
The short answer: Britain is preparing for the possibility of war, not for a war that is about to start. What is happening is contingency and readiness planning, much of it set out months ago in official documents. Nobody in government has announced conscription, and there is no sign that compulsory military service is coming. What is changing is the tone. Ministers and military chiefs are now saying in public that defence can no longer be left to the armed forces alone.
Here is what has actually been said and done, what is still unclear, and what it means for ordinary people.
What the army chief said at Catterick
The trigger for this week's debate was a blunt speech by General Sir Roly Walker, the Chief of the General Staff, to around 700 soldiers at Catterick Garrison in North Yorkshire. The remarks were filmed by British Forces Broadcasting Service and first reported by Sky News on 16 October.
"You didn't know this, but our nation is going to need you," he told the troops. "Indeed, very soon, the political leaders of this country will start to have a frank conversation with the citizens of this country about just what is going on and where the risk lies."
He went on: "They are going to try and explain to our citizens that our citizens have got to consent to sacrifices to prioritise defence and security." According to The Independent, he also said there is "extreme jeopardy in the world at the moment, and the business of soldiering is coming back into the nation's psyche."
It is worth being precise about what he did not say. He did not announce a draft, a mobilisation or a date for any conflict. He was speaking to soldiers about public support for the military. The "sacrifices" he described were not spelled out. They could mean higher taxes, cuts elsewhere in public spending, a bigger reserve force or more civilian training. Nobody has said which.
A government spokesperson responded that "our response must go beyond the Armed Forces alone," adding: "Government, industry and the public all have a role to play."
The political reaction: it comes down to money
The political row is mostly about funding. Prime Minister Andy Burnham inherited from Sir Keir Starmer a promise to hold a "national conversation" on defence. Sky News noted that the pledge was made more than 18 months ago and has yet to get a real push from Downing Street.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has pressed the government to say when defence spending will reach 3% of GDP. According to a report by the campaign group Great British PAC, she was told at Prime Minister's Questions to wait for the Budget on 28 October. The Independent reported that the Conservatives want 3% by 2030.
The numbers explain why. The government's Defence Investment Plan funding explainer puts NATO-qualifying spending at 2.6% of GDP in 2026-27 and 2.7% from 2027-28 to 2029-30. It also shows £4.7bn of the plan's £15bn uplift marked "to be funded at Budget 2026". Chancellor John Healey, who resigned as defence secretary in June over defence funding, now has to find that money.
The machinery: Home Defence Programme and the 'War Books'
Much of this week's debate is about plans that already exist on paper. The government's Resilience Action Plan 2026 implementation report, published in July, sets out several of them:
- A Home Defence Programme, described as "adding a layer of defence, security, and resilience planning, to unite military and civilian efforts".
- Revitalised government "War Books", the crisis protocols setting out how departments would run during a serious emergency or conflict, plus faster planning by each department.
- A national Home Defence exercise in 2027. According to the Cabinet Office, it is expected to involve hundreds of officials, from crisis teams and local responders up to ministers.
- New household advice on preparing for disruption, backed by a multi-year campaign that includes resources for schools, colleges and young people.
The Pembrokeshire Herald points out that the War Books "are not public information leaflets." They are internal plans for how the machinery of government keeps working.
Scotland is now part of that work. The Herald reported that the Scottish Government will help draft the new War Book for the first time, with the Cabinet Office in London leading. A senior Scottish civil servant called it "good preparedness". The paper says the book is due to be finished by the end of the year and tested in next year's exercise. Cold War editions covered things like closing schools, clearing hospitals and rationing food.
A UK government spokesperson told The Herald: "People rightly expect the government to have a range of contingency plans for various scenarios, no matter how unlikely they might be." That sentence sums up the official position well.
Why 2030 keeps coming up
Military leaders keep pointing to the end of this decade. The Herald reports that in July, Sir Keir Starmer said: "It is our intelligence assessment and the assessment of other countries in Nato that there could be an attack by Russia on NATO as soon as 2030." NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has given a similar timeframe.
Chief of the Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton told the BBC last month that this is the "most dangerous" period of his 35-year career. "Russia is probing, challenging, testing our defences," he said. Note the wording, though: "could be" and "as soon as". These are warnings about risk, not forecasts of a date.
The NHS mass-casualty wargame
One concrete sign of planning came this week. Forces News reported that more than 100 military experts, clinicians and civil servants took part in a three-day wargame. It tested how the NHS would treat military casualties flown home from an overseas conflict, drawing on lessons from Ukraine.
Major General Phil Carter, the UK Surgeon General, said the scenario "focuses on the end point" of planning for a transition to conflict, "were deterrence to fail". The exercises are described as "part of routine preparedness planning", and more are scheduled for the coming months. Medical planners are also studying drones for evacuating wounded and delivering blood, after what Ukraine has learned on the front line. (For civilian first-aid basics, see our guide to golden-hour first aid.)
The threat that is already here: hybrid attacks
For most Britons, the most immediate threat is not tanks. It is the "hybrid" campaign of sabotage, cyber attacks and disinformation. Former national security adviser Lord Ricketts told the BBC that such attacks are getting "more reckless, more dangerous," and that "people are going to end up getting killed somewhere." He also said: "I'm not saying there's going to be industrial war with tanks rolling across the north German plain."
In his annual threat update, MI5's director general said the agency's state-threats caseload has quadrupled over the last decade and that "Russia remains aggressor number one". He urged critical-infrastructure operators to prepare "the day before, not the morning after". (Cyber threats are a theme we have covered before, including CERT-In's warning on AI agents bypassing firewalls.)
One point needs clarifying. The UK's national terrorism threat level is indeed "severe", meaning an attack is highly likely. But MI5's records show it was raised on 30 April 2026, after an antisemitic attack. It is not a war-readiness measure and was not raised this week.
Ukraine: missiles, winter aid and a rehearsal in Poland
The war in Ukraine is the backdrop to all of this. Andy Burnham hosted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Downing Street on 14 October. The two leaders discussed how the UK could speed up defensive support before winter. Bloomberg and The Telegraph reported that Britain will send more Storm Shadow cruise missiles. The government does not confirm numbers.
Separately, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced £54m in winter resilience funding on 8 October: £20m for energy repairs and back-up power, and £34m for heating, water and cash support.
Next month, according to The Times as reported by The Independent, at least 1,500 troops from Britain, France and Germany, alongside Polish forces, will exercise in Poland. They will rehearse moving troops and supplies for a possible multinational force in Ukraine after a ceasefire. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting confirmed the exercise. Poland's defence ministry told Rzeczpospolita that exact dates and the final list of countries have not yet been confirmed.
What the public thinks
An Ipsos poll of 1,090 British adults (29 September to 1 October) found that 48% say there are no circumstances in which they would take up arms for Britain. Just 36% say they would. Yet 51% think defence spending should rise even if that means more borrowing, higher taxes or cuts elsewhere, up six points since June. Only 12% want it cut.
Support has limits: 44% oppose higher defence spending if their own taxes go up. RUSI associate fellow Hamish Mundell told the Press Association, via Sky News, that the real limit on numbers is training and equipping people, not finding people willing to fight.
Gaps in capability
Readiness is also about kit. The Type 45 destroyer HMS Daring has been out of service since April 2017. According to UK Defence Journal, she took on fuel in late September for the first time in years ahead of sea trials, after a power-system refit and long delays. Ipsos also found more Britons rate the state of the armed forces as bad (36%) than good (29%).
How Europe compares
Britain is late to a trend that is well under way elsewhere:
- Germany now sends a military-service questionnaire to 18-year-olds, which men must answer. Service itself remains voluntary for now.
- Denmark has expanded conscription, and Latvia can select recruits by lottery if too few volunteer, the Pembrokeshire Herald reports.
- Poland trains civilians in first aid, survival and defence.
- Sweden runs a "total defence" model that gives roles to councils, businesses and citizens. Norway has named 2026 its Total Defence Year.
Norway's message may be the best summary of where Britain now stands: there is no immediate danger of war, but the country must be better prepared for one. These shifts are also reshaping trade and alliances worldwide, as our coverage of the India-US trade talks shows.
What it means for ordinary people
For now, the practical asks are modest. Streeting told The Sun, as reported by the Manchester Evening News, that households should keep "some cash at home," bottled water and tinned food in case of power cuts or other emergencies. "I want people to be alert, not alarmed," he said. The government's Prepare website lists a basic emergency kit, including water, food that needs no cooking, a torch, a radio, a power bank and medicines.
This is the same advice you would follow for floods, storms or a long blackout. The bigger "sacrifices" Gen Walker mentioned are most likely to arrive through the Budget, as decisions about tax and spending.
What to watch next
- 28 October Budget: whether the £4.7bn gap is filled and whether there is a date for 3% of GDP.
- The "national conversation": whether Burnham launches the promised public campaign and household advice.
- November in Poland: the first coalition rehearsal for a post-ceasefire Ukraine force.
- End of 2026: completion of the new War Book, ahead of the 2027 Home Defence exercise.
FAQ
Is the UK about to go to war?
No. Officials describe the current work as contingency planning. Military chiefs warn of a possible Russian threat to NATO "as soon as 2030", but no conflict has been announced or predicted for a set date.
Is conscription coming back in Britain?
There is no evidence of it. No minister or military chief has proposed compulsory service. The debate is about funding, reserves and public resilience.
What is a War Book?
It is a confidential government plan setting out how departments would operate during a serious crisis or conflict. They were shelved after the Cold War and are now being updated.
Should I stockpile?
Officials advise a modest emergency kit (water, tinned food, some cash, a torch and a radio), not panic buying.
Sources
- Sky News: Army chief says politicians to start 'frank conversation' with public (16 October 2026)
- The Independent: Army chief warns Britons will have to make 'sacrifices' (16 October 2026)
- GOV.UK: Resilience Action Plan 2026 Implementation Report
- The Herald: Scotland to develop 'War Book' with UK
- Pembrokeshire Herald: Britain prepares for a new age of war (17 October 2026)
- Forces News: UK military and NHS wargame (16 October 2026)
- BBC: UK must protect against Russian 'hybrid attacks' (17 October 2026)
- Ipsos: Rising support for increasing defence spending (14 October 2026)
- GOV.UK: Defence Investment Plan funding explainer
