As of 10:00 PM IST, Sunday 25 October 2026 (updated with more global and India context). Indian markets are closed for the weekend. Figures are for the week ended Friday, 23 October. Event dates are from PTI (via Fortune India), Moneycontrol, Upstox, The Economic Times, ET Now, Yardeni Research and official release calendars. US times are converted to IST. Dates can change, so check exchange and company announcements. Analysts' levels are their views, not forecasts by HorizonDesk.
Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. HorizonDesk is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Please consult a SEBI-registered professional before making investment decisions.
Indian shares head into the week of 26–30 October after a weak, holiday-shortened week in which the Nifty 50 and Sensex both fell more than 2%. This week brings several big events: the US Federal Reserve's rate decision, Jio Platforms' stock market debut, the monthly Nifty derivatives expiry and a heavy run of September-quarter results. Crude oil and West Asia tensions remain the main risks.
Where markets ended last week
| Indicator | Week ended 23 Oct |
|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | Down 546.15 points (2.36%) to about 22,600 |
| BSE Sensex | Down 1,605.44 points (2.15%) to 73,123.83 |
| Bank Nifty | Down about 2.7% (Upstox) |
| Nifty Midcap 100 / Smallcap 100 | Down 5.6% / about 7%, their steepest weekly falls in 20 months (Moneycontrol) |
| BSE-listed market value | Down about ₹20.79 lakh crore to ₹451.83 lakh crore (PTI via TOI) |
| Rupee | 94.93 per US dollar on Friday (PTI via Moneycontrol) |
| Brent crude | Settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, up 3.1% on the day and about 6% for the week, its highest settlement since 29 April (Reuters, CNBC). Upstox rounds this to about $116; PTI cited a level of about $114. |
| India VIX | Up about 20% over the week to 16.76 (Upstox) |
| US markets (Friday) | S&P 500 7,623.68 (−0.5% for the week), Nasdaq 25,955.34 (−0.7%), Dow 52,215.16 (+0.4%) (Reuters) |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.987% on Friday, down 0.11 percentage point over the week (WSJ, citing Tradeweb) |
For the full story of last week, see our weekly market wrap.
Calendar for the week (dates in IST)
Company results dates are from ET Now's and CNBC-TV18's weekly lists; Sun Pharma's date is from its own announcement. US events are from Yardeni Research, CNBC and Upstox. Companies sometimes reschedule, so check exchange filings.
| Day | India | Global |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, 26 Oct | Jio Platforms IPO allotment expected. EAAA India Alternatives' ₹1,200-crore IPO opens (to 28 Oct). Results: Tata Consumer Products, REC, Paytm, Mankind Pharma. | China's Communist Party plenum begins (26–29 Oct, Reuters). |
| Tue, 27 Oct | Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty October monthly derivatives expiry. SFC Environmental Technologies (₹313–330 a share) and BLS Polymers (₹142–150) IPOs open. Results: Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel, Cipla, SBI Life. | US Fed's two-day meeting begins. Boeing results. |
| Wed, 28 Oct | Jio Platforms and Paras Healthcare list on NSE and BSE. India's September industrial production (IIP) data. MK Sons Fine Jewels IPO opens (₹153–162). Results: Hindustan Unilever, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motor, Hyundai Motor India. | Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand decisions. Fed decision late in the evening IST if it keeps its usual 2 PM US Eastern time (about 11:30 PM IST), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. Alphabet, Microsoft and SK Hynix results. |
| Thu, 29 Oct | Market reaction to the Fed in India. Results: Coal India, Asian Paints, Trent, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo). | US third-quarter GDP (first estimate), September PCE inflation and weekly jobless claims. US data usually comes out at 8:30 AM Eastern time (about 6:00 PM IST). European Central Bank decision. Amazon, Eli Lilly, Intel and Samsung results. |
| Fri, 30 Oct | India's fiscal deficit for September, bank credit and deposit data and RBI forex reserves. Results: Sun Pharma, Indian Oil, GAIL, Bharat Electronics, Bank of Baroda. | Bank of Japan decision. Exxon Mobil results. Trump's revised list of Canadian goods facing 50% US tariffs takes effect. |
| Sat, 31 Oct | NTPC results (ET Now). | — |
Just after the week: HSBC's final India manufacturing PMI for October is due on Monday, 2 November, and the US midterm elections are on 3 November.
Key triggers to watch
1. The US Federal Reserve
The Fed meets on 27–28 October. Upstox says markets expect it to hold its target range at 3.75%–4.00% after September's rate increase. Investors will focus on Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance for December. "Markets largely expect rates to remain unchanged, making the policy guidance more important than the decision itself," said Hariselvan Radhakrishnan of HST Wealth (PTI). A hawkish tone could lift US yields and the dollar, which would weigh on foreign flows into India.
2. Jio Platforms' listing
Jio Platforms' ₹30,213-crore IPO, India's largest, was subscribed 22.19 times and is due to list on Wednesday, 28 October. The Economic Times reported an unofficial grey market premium of about ₹247 over the ₹1,119 upper price band as of 25 October. Grey market premiums are unregulated and can change quickly, and the actual listing price may differ. The debut matters beyond applicants because, as the largest listing in India's history, it will be watched as a test of market sentiment. Paras Healthcare (issue price ₹693, subscribed 2.23 times) lists the same day.
3. Crude oil and West Asia
Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and fears over Gulf shipping pushed Brent up about 6% last week, according to Upstox. India imports most of its oil, so high crude prices can raise inflation, pressure the rupee and hurt company margins. Ponmudi R of Enrich Money called crude "a central concern" (Moneycontrol).
4. September-quarter results
Companies expected to report during the week, according to Religare Broking's Ajit Mishra and Upstox's calendar, include TVS Motor, Asian Paints, Trent, Sun Pharma, Bharat Electronics, Indian Oil, Bank of Baroda, GAIL, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto, Cipla, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Coal India and InterGlobe Aviation. Upstox highlighted oil-sensitive companies, such as fuel retailers, airlines, paint makers and tyre makers, as the ones to watch for margin pressure.
5. Foreign investor flows
Foreign portfolio investors have pulled ₹48,056 crore out of Indian shares in October so far, and ₹3.08 lakh crore so far in 2026, according to CDSL data cited by PTI. The selling eased last week, with net buying on two days. Domestic institutions continued to buy. See our FPI flows report.
Global factors to watch
The Fed's tone matters more than the decision
The Fed's target range is 3.75%–4.00% after September's increase. Yardeni Research, citing the CME FedWatch tool on 24 October, put the odds of a hike this week at 9% and of one in December at 84%. Inflation is moving further from the Fed's 2% target as fuel prices rise, but a weak September jobs report and patient comments from some Fed officials have cooled talk of an immediate hike, CNBC reported. For Indian markets, the key question is whether Warsh's comments push US yields and the dollar higher. That has tended to weigh on foreign flows into emerging markets, analysts told PTI.
US growth and inflation data on Thursday
Thursday brings the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP and September's PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred price gauge. Q2 growth was 2.2% (annualised). The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated Q3 growth at 3.5% as of 20 October, Yardeni noted. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast pointed to core PCE inflation of about 3.1% a year and headline inflation of about 3.6% in September, up from 3.0% and 3.4% in August. These are model estimates, not the official numbers. A hot inflation reading would strengthen the case for a December hike.
Bond yields, the dollar and Wall Street
The 10-year US Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.987%, slightly higher on the day but lower for the week, according to WSJ, citing Tradeweb. Wall Street's main indexes fell on Friday. The S&P 500 posted a second weekly loss, while the Dow rose for a third week (Reuters). Worries about how much AI spending will cost the biggest tech companies weighed on the Nasdaq. Its 2.9% fall on Thursday was its biggest one-day drop since June, Yardeni noted.
Big Tech results and AI spending
Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. CNBC reported that Meta's results last week unsettled investors worried about the sustainability of AI spending, and its shares fell more than 9% that week. The reaction to this week's results could shape global tech sentiment. Indian IT was the only sector to rise last week (Upstox), so it is one area to watch. Chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung also report this week.
Oil and West Asia
Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Yemen-based Houthis continued over the weekend. On Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted Houthi drones and missiles aimed at Riyadh, Khamis Mushait and southern Saudi Arabia. The Houthis said they targeted airports and Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu (CNBC, citing the Saudi Press Agency). Investors are also watching for possible US–Israeli strikes on Iran. US officials told The New York Times that the two countries have plans for strikes after the 3 November midterms, CNBC reported. Any new attack on energy infrastructure or shipping could move crude sharply when markets reopen.
Other central banks
Several other central banks meet this week, according to Yardeni. Markets expect the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise rates on Wednesday. The European Central Bank (Thursday) and the Bank of Japan (Friday) are expected to hold at 2.50% and 1.25% respectively, with markets pricing in December hikes for both. Tighter global policy can reduce the appetite for emerging-market shares.
Trade and China
The US Trade Representative has proposed extending its suspension of port fees on China-linked ships for two more months, to 9 January 2027. Without the extension, the pause ends on 9 November. Public comments are due on 30 October (Federal Register). Separately, Trump's revised list of Canadian goods facing 50% tariffs takes effect on 30 October. Both are US–China and US–Canada matters with no direct effect on Indian tariffs, but they shape global trade sentiment. China's Communist Party Central Committee holds a plenum from 26 to 29 October (Reuters). Investors will watch it for any policy signals.
Asian markets
Asian markets were mixed on Friday. South Korea's KOSPI ended 0.3% higher at 5,550.30 after a fall of more than 3% the day before, as investors bought chip stocks at lower prices (Yonhap). Asia will be the first to react on Monday to weekend news from West Asia.
India factors to watch
Foreign selling and domestic buying
Different datasets give slightly different figures. CDSL data cited by PTI shows a net FPI outflow of ₹48,056 crore in October so far. Upstox, using exchange data, puts FII selling at about ₹51,000 crore, against about ₹59,000 crore of net buying by domestic institutions. Last week, FIIs sold ₹2,697.37 crore and DIIs bought ₹10,942.19 crore, according to Moneycontrol. FIIs have been net sellers for nine weeks in a row on this measure. Dheeraj Gaur of Choice Wealth linked the FPI selling to high crude prices, weak earnings, inflation concerns and uncertainty over liquidity (PTI).
The rupee
The rupee fell 12 paise on Friday to close at 94.93 per US dollar. "We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on elevated crude oil prices amid escalation of tensions in the Middle East and weakness in domestic markets," said Anuj Choudhary of Mirae Asset Sharekhan (Moneycontrol). A hawkish Fed or higher oil prices could add to the pressure.
Economic data
- Industrial production (Wed, 28 Oct): September's eight-core-industries data, released on 21 October, showed growth of 7.9%, a 30-month high. Economists differ on what that means for the IIP. ICRA's Aditi Nayar expects IIP growth to ease to 6–7%. Bank of Baroda's Madan Sabnavis expects 7.5–8.5% (BusinessLine).
- Fiscal deficit, bank credit and forex reserves (Fri, 30 Oct): data for September, for the fortnight ended 16 October and for the week ended 23 October respectively (Moneycontrol).
- PMI (Mon, 2 Nov): October's flash manufacturing PMI was 54.9, with overall private-sector activity at a four-month high (Business Standard). The final reading comes just after the week.
Expiry-day volatility
Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty October monthly contracts expire on Tuesday, 27 October, under NSE's last-Tuesday rule. Upstox said the expiry could increase volatility around heavily traded option strikes. India VIX ended last week at 16.76.
Levels analysts are watching
- Moneycontrol's technical review sees support for the Nifty at 22,200–22,350, where the 200-week moving average and a rising trendline meet. It notes a weekly RSI of 37.34, which points to weak momentum.
- Upstox says a break below 22,372 would bring 22,217 into focus, and then 22,000. On the upside, it says reclaiming 22,800–22,840 could open a recovery towards 23,150.
- Upstox's Nifty 50 breadth indicator fell to 16% as of 23 October, below its 20% threshold. Upstox says this signals weak participation and leaves rebounds vulnerable to selling.
Analysts quoted by Moneycontrol described the overall bias as sideways to bearish until a clearer recovery emerges. These are views, not predictions, and markets can move sharply on unexpected news.
Related reading on HorizonDesk
- Last week's preview: stock market outlook for 19–23 October
- Jio Platforms IPO subscribed 22 times: allotment and listing dates
- The Fed is raising rates again: what it means for your money
Sources
- Fortune India / PTI: Fed rate decision, Q2 earnings, crude oil and Jio listing in focus (25 Oct 2026)
- Moneycontrol: Dalal Street week ahead, 10 key factors to watch (25 Oct 2026)
- Upstox: Jio listing, US Fed meeting, crude and Nifty expiry among key triggers next week (25 Oct 2026)
- The Economic Times: 5 IPOs to raise ₹2,581 crore next week alongside Jio listing (25 Oct 2026)
- The Times of India / PTI: Eight of top-10 firms lose ₹1.55 lakh crore in market value (25 Oct 2026)
- Moneycontrol: Midcaps post steepest fall in two years (25 Oct 2026)
- Reuters (via Investing.com): Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, highest settlement since April (23 Oct 2026)
- CNBC: Saudi Arabia says it intercepted missiles and drones from Houthis (25 Oct 2026)
- CNBC: Next week brings major risks for the stock market (23 Oct 2026)
- Yardeni Research: Economic week ahead, October 26–30 (24 Oct 2026)
- Reuters (via US News): Wall Street closes lower to end rocky week (23 Oct 2026)
- WSJ: Treasury yields rise, fall for the week (23 Oct 2026)
- Federal Register: USTR proposal to further suspend China maritime Section 301 action (Oct 2026)
- Reuters: China's Central Committee plenum set for October 26–29 (21 Sep 2026)
- Yonhap: Seoul stocks end tad higher on bargain hunting (23 Oct 2026)
- ET Now: Q2 results this week, full list
- CNBC-TV18: Q2 results this week
- Sun Pharma: Q2 results on 30 October 2026 (15 Oct 2026)
- BusinessLine: Core sector grew 7.9% in September (21 Oct 2026)
- Business Standard: HSBC flash PMI, October (23 Oct 2026)
- Upstox: Market weekly wrap, week ended 23 October (24 Oct 2026)
- Moneycontrol: Sensex, Nifty snap 2-week rally (24 Oct 2026)
