US midterm elections 2026: where the race stands and how the results will work

As of 7:30 pm IST, Monday 2 November 2026 (9:00 am Eastern time). Polls, forecasts and early-vote counts change quickly; figures below are attributed to the outlets that published them.

Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November, in midterm elections that will decide control of both chambers of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. Every one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives is on the ballot, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 state governorships. Forecasters and final polls point to a difficult environment for Mr Trump's Republican Party, but many of the races that decide the Senate are within the margin of error, and no outcome is settled until the votes are counted.

What is at stake

• House of Representatives: all 435 seats, each for a two-year term. A party needs 218 seats for a majority.
• Senate: 35 seats - 33 regular contests plus two special elections in Florida and Ohio for the seats previously held by Marco Rubio and JD Vance. Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 and Democrats 13, according to Political.org.
• Governors: 36 states elect governors; the Guardian counts 39 contests including three US territories.
• Voters: roughly 210 million Americans are registered to vote, according to Al Jazeera.

The current balance of power

House: Republicans hold 218 seats and Democrats 214, with one independent and two vacancies, according to Political.org and the Guardian. The independent, Representative Kevin Kiley of California, left the Republican Party in March but still works with Republicans on committee assignments. The vacancies are Florida's 20th district and Texas's 23rd. Democrats need a net gain of about four seats to win a majority; outlets differ slightly on the exact figure because of the vacancies.

Senate: Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 45, plus two independents, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, who caucus with the Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. If the chamber splits 50-50, Vice President JD Vance would cast tie-breaking votes, keeping Republicans in control.

What the forecasters and polls say

The forecasts lean towards Democrats, though most stop short of certainty. None is a result.

• Cook Political Report: in its closing analysis on 30 October, Cook called Democrats "slight favorites" for the Senate, with seven key races within the margin of error. It moved Nebraska's Senate race from Likely to Lean Republican and Florida's from Solid to Likely Republican. In the House, the Washington Post reported that Cook projects Democrats gaining between 12 and 25 seats, which could take them as high as 240, with 18 races rated toss-ups.
• Other forecasters: a roundup by Election Central lists Inside Elections expecting Democratic gains of 20 to 30 House seats and 4 to 6 Senate seats. It also lists Decision Desk HQ giving Democrats an 82% chance in the House and 62% in the Senate. Republican strategist Karl Rove expects Democrats to gain 20 to 25 House seats but Republicans to keep the Senate.
• National polls: the final NBC News poll, taken from 28 to 30 October among 1,000 registered voters (margin of error plus or minus 3.1 points), found voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress by 52% to 45%. It put Mr Trump's approval at 40% and disapproval at 60%, the highest disapproval in NBC polling across his two terms. Other polls show narrower gaps; YouGov's 24 to 27 October survey had Democrats ahead by about three points.

Key races to watch

Final New York Times/Siena polls published on 1 November showed Democratic Senate candidates ahead by 5 to 11 points in Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Texas and Michigan, a two-point race in Alaska and a virtual tie in Iowa. Siena's director said a Senate majority for either party "remains possible" because so many races are within the margin of error.

• North Carolina (Republican-held, open): former Democratic governor Roy Cooper against former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. CNN rates it the seat most likely to change hands.
• Ohio (special election): Republican Senator Jon Husted against former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown. The governor's race pits Democrat Amy Acton against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.
• Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson, in a state that uses ranked-choice voting.
• Michigan (Democratic-held, open): Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican former representative Mike Rogers, which NPR describes as Republicans' best pick-up opportunity.
• Texas (open): Democrat James Talarico against Republican attorney general Ken Paxton. CNN's poll average shows no clear leader.
• Iowa (open), Kansas and Alaska: Iowa's Josh Turek (D) against Ashley Hinson (R); Kansas's Adam Hamilton (D) against Senator Roger Marshall (R); and Alaska's Mary Peltola (D) against Senator Dan Sullivan (R).
• Governors: NPR highlights Arizona (Katie Hobbs against Andy Biggs), Nevada (Joe Lombardo against Aaron Ford), Georgia, Iowa and Ohio among the competitive or closely watched contests; NPR rates Nevada a toss-up.

Early and mail voting so far

NBC News counted about 54.8 million ballots already cast - roughly 24 million by mail and 30.8 million in person - in an update at 8 am Eastern on 2 November. Other trackers report slightly different totals because states publish data on different schedules. In states that record party registration, registered Democrats account for a larger share of early ballots than registered Republicans. That shows who has voted, not how they voted; Republicans have tended to vote in larger numbers on Election Day itself.

The issues shaping the vote

• Cost of living: NBC's poll found inflation and the cost of living the top issue, with about three in four voters dissatisfied with the economy. USA Today, citing AAA, reported the national average price of gasoline at more than $4 a gallon in late October, after the conflict with Iran pushed up oil prices.
• Iran and oil: Mr Trump has said there will be no new strikes on Iran before the vote. Brent crude fell more than 4% on Monday, to about $108 a barrel, on hopes for talks in Doha.
• Redistricting: AP reports that nine states - Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah - are using new House maps, most of them drawn to help Republicans, while California's and Utah's could help Democrats.
• Legal fights: a federal judge in California denied a Justice Department request to set aside about 20,000 mail ballots, and the department has appealed. The department has also sued to try to block certification of Alaska's Senate result if the incumbent loses; Peltola's lawyers and state officials have asked for the case to be dismissed.

How the results work

When polls close (Eastern and India time)

US clocks went back on 1 November, so Eastern time is now UTC-5 and India is 10 hours 30 minutes ahead. The table below gives the time the last polls close in each state, as listed by NPR and Polling Forecast. States that span two time zones close in stages. Voters already in line at closing time can still vote.

Television networks and the AP do not normally call a state until most of its polls have closed.

Counting and race calls

On election night, counties report unofficial results as they count. The Associated Press, which most US news outlets rely on, then "calls" a race when its analysts judge that the trailing candidate no longer has a path to victory. It bases that on votes counted, the number of ballots still outstanding and where they come from. AP says a call is not a prediction, but it is also not the official result. Close races can stay "too close to call" for days.

The official result comes later, when local and state officials finish counting and canvassing and certify it. Each state sets its own deadline. California's counties must certify by 3 December and its secretary of state by 11 December. Ballotpedia lists 20 November as Georgia's deadline for certifying federal and statewide results.

Why mail ballots can slow things down

Each mail ballot has to be checked - for example, by matching the signature on the envelope - before it is counted. Some states let officials start this work before Election Day, while others, such as New Hampshire, do not. Deadlines differ too. Most states, including Florida, require mail ballots to arrive by Election Day, and Ohio removed its four-day grace period in 2025. California counts ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive by 10 November. Alaska accepts ballots mailed from outside the US for 15 days after the vote.

This is why leads can change after election night. Mail, early and Election Day votes often lean in different directions, and states report them in different orders. Detroit officials, for example, expect to report about 95% of the city's ballots on election night. PolitiFact notes that some California and Alaska races could take a week or two to decide.

Ranked choice, runoffs and recounts

• Ranked choice: in Maine and Alaska, if no candidate wins more than half of first-choice votes, the last-placed candidate is eliminated and those votes move to the voters' next choice until someone passes 50%. In Alaska this can take weeks.
• Georgia runoff: Georgia requires a majority. If no candidate passes 50%, the top two meet in a runoff on 1 December 2026.
• Louisiana: according to the Louisiana secretary of state, US House candidates who do not win a majority on 3 November go to a second round on 12 December.
• Recounts: several states hold automatic recounts when the margin is very narrow - often 0.5 percentage points or less, according to Ballotpedia. Recounts can push final results into December.

Majorities and when the new Congress starts

• House: 218 of 435 seats is a majority when every seat is filled.
• Senate: 51 seats gives a clear majority. At 50-50, the vice president, currently JD Vance, breaks ties.
• Start date: under the Constitution, the new (120th) Congress convenes on 3 January 2027. Newly elected governors take office on dates set by their states.

What to watch

• The first poll closings from 5:30 am IST on Wednesday, with early signals from Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio.
• How quickly Michigan, Texas and Iowa report, between about 6:30 am and 7:30 am IST.
• Whether Maine or Alaska goes to ranked-choice tabulation, which would delay a Senate call.
• Late-counted California House seats, which could matter if the House is close.
• Any court rulings on the California mail ballots and the Alaska certification case.
• The market reaction: a split Congress versus single-party control matters for spending, tariffs and oversight.

Related reading on HorizonDesk

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• Iran and Qatar open two-day Doha talks on a Hormuz plan
• Trump's Russian diesel deal as diesel prices hit records

Sources

• The Guardian: What are the midterm elections?
• Political.org: 2026 midterm elections explained
• Al Jazeera: US midterms 2026 in maps and charts
• Cook Political Report: closing rating changes
• Washington Post: Cook says Democrats could win up to 240 House seats
• Election Central: final midterm predictions
• NBC News: final national poll
• NBC News: early vote tracker
• Siena Research Institute: NYT/Siena state polls
• CNN: Senate seats most likely to flip
• NPR: when polls close and what to watch
• Polling Forecast: election night poll-closing times
• PBS/PolitiFact: when will we know the results?
• AP: why and how AP calls elections
• AP: nine states have new House districts
• California Secretary of State: key dates and deadlines
• Georgia.gov: general election runoff, 1 December 2026
• Ballotpedia: certification dates, 2026