The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5°C limit on global warming set in the Paris Agreement, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, in its annual Emissions Gap Report. On current policies, the planet is heading for about 2.8°C of warming this century.
"The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5 degree limit," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, according to AFP. But he added: "Overshoot is not surrender."
Key findings
| Finding | Figure |
|---|---|
| Warming so far | About 1.4°C |
| Warming on current policies | About 2.8°C this century |
| Warming if all pledges are met | About 2.6°C |
| Best-case overshoot | Peaking at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century |
| Emissions cuts needed vs 2025 | 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, 69% by 2040 |
| 2025 global emissions | Roughly level with the 2024 record |
Sources: UN News and AFP. The report is titled Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return.
The US factor
The outlook is worse than last year partly because of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised historical data, according to UN News. US emissions rose by 133 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2025, the largest increase of any country, driven by growing electricity demand and a rebound in coal. Report co-author Anne Olhoff called the US a "major exception" to broader trends, AFP reported.
What would it take?
The report sets benchmarks for fossil fuels: compared with 2025 supply, coal would need to fall by at least 55% by 2035, oil by 15% and gas by 5%. "We must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
Campaigners were blunt. Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa called the findings "a historic failure of political leadership," according to AFP.
Why overshoot matters
Overshooting 1.5°C means global temperatures would rise above the limit for some time before, ideally, being brought back down through deep emissions cuts and removing carbon dioxide from the air. Every extra tenth of a degree increases the risk of more extreme heatwaves, floods and storms, such as Super Typhoon Champi, the strongest storm of 2026, which is now threatening East Asia.
What happens next
The report sets the stage for COP31, the UN climate summit to be held in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November, where countries will begin the second "global stocktake" of progress under the Paris Agreement.
