As of about 6:45 AM IST, Monday 2 November 2026. Claims that could not be independently verified are flagged as such.
Seven core members of the OPEC+ oil producers' group kept their December production targets unchanged at an online meeting on Sunday 1 November, confirming market expectations that bigger policy decisions will wait for next year. The real test, analysts say, comes at the full ministerial meeting on 29 November, when the group is expected to set its 2027 production framework amid deep uncertainty over the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.
The decision
In a statement, OPEC said Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman "decided to maintain September 2026 required production for December 2026". The seven reiterated their commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation and said they will continue to meet monthly. The next meeting is on 29 November 2026.
Reuters noted that these seven members, plus the United Arab Emirates until it left OPEC in May, have been the ones making monthly output decisions in recent years. All members of the 21-country group are due to meet on 29 November.
Why targets matter less right now
For much of 2026 the group raised its targets, and in September it completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day cut first agreed in 2023. Targets were then held steady for October and November. But the Iran war has disrupted Gulf exports for months, and Reuters reported that most Gulf members are still pumping well below their targets even as they work to restore shipments. One further layer of cuts, about 2 million bpd, covers most members until the end of 2026.
The harder call for 2027
"Today's decision was the easy one," Rystad analyst Jorge Leon told Reuters. "The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework." He added that the group "has to plan around huge uncertainty over the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of the surplus that could emerge once disrupted barrels return."
The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of excess supply in 2027 if Gulf flows return to normal, Reuters reported. Before setting 2027 baselines, OPEC+ also has to finish a review of members' production capacity. The war has disrupted capacity-expansion projects across the Middle East, and sources told Reuters the review is now expected to be done by mid-November.
Market backdrop
Brent crude settled near $118 a barrel on Friday 30 October, its highest since April, as traders braced for possible escalation after the US midterm elections. Prices eased in early Asian trade on Monday, with Brent futures down about 1.5% at $111.72, as Iranian and Qatari officials continued talks in Doha. Brent rose 13.6% in October.
What it means for businesses
- Fuel-heavy industries such as airlines, shipping and petrochemicals will get little relief from OPEC+ policy; the oil price is being driven by Hormuz and war risk rather than by quotas.
- Producers outside the Gulf continue to benefit from high prices, as seen in recent results from the oil majors.
- Planning for 2027 hinges on two unknowns: whether Gulf barrels return and how OPEC+ handles a possible surplus.
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- Great financial crises: the oil shock and stagflation
